Niger’s coup and the implications for domestic and global energy supplies

On 26 July 2023, Niger's president, Mohamed Bazoum, announced via his official X, formerly Twitter, account that the presidential guard had tried to move against the president in a coup attempt. Shortly after, it was announced that guards were holding Bazoum inside the presidential palace in the nation's capital, Niamey.

Following Bazoum's detainment, footage was released showing a group of soldiers who had claimed to have overthrown the government, with the country’s borders closed, though borders with Algeria, Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya and Mali have since reopened.

In addition, a nationwide curfew was put in place and all institutions of the country were suspended, as outlined by Niger army spokesman Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane.

On 28 July, Abdourahmane Tchiani, head of Niger’s presidential guard, named himself head of a transitional government, adding that the move was necessary to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the country.

International responses

In the aftermath, the international community expressed strong disapproval of the coup. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) took decisive action by imposing financial sanctions on the nation, and Nigeria cut off its power supply to Niger.

ECOWAS also issued a stern warning of possible military intervention if Bazoum was not reinstated by a specified deadline, which expired on 6 August.

The bloc's firm stance reflects its commitment to quelling the series of coups that have plagued the region. Additionally, various countries outside the region withdrew their financial support to Niger, which had acted as a lifeline for the nation.

Of significant consequence, Niger's new military government terminated five military cooperation agreements with France, a key partner in combating jihadist extremism in the region. Moreover, the country's airspace has been closed as of 6 August, citing concerns about potential military intervention from ECOWAS.

Despite the strong international message, the military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have vowed to come to Niger's defence if necessary.

Additionally, Wagner's Prigozhin expressed support for the coup, indicating the group's potential future involvement in Niger's affairs. This is further exacerbated by a growing anti-Western and pro-Russian sentiment observed in the country, reflected by several recent protests, making the situation even more difficult.

Uranium supply

Apart from serving as a vital Western asset in combating extremism, Niger also holds the distinction of being the seventh-largest global producer of uranium—a crucial element for nuclear energy.

Notably, France has a significant presence in uranium mining within Niger, linked to its prominent position in nuclear energy production. In fact, as of 2021, France generates almost seventy per cent of its energy from nuclear sources, making it the world leader in nuclear power generation.

This has led to questions about whether France and the wider EU's uranium supply is at risk, evidenced by an increase in the spot price of uranium on 31 July from USD 56.15 a pound to USD 56.25.

Despite concerns, the EU's uranium supply currently does not face an imminent threat. The bloc assured that it possesses sufficient uranium inventories to sustain its nuclear power reactors for an additional three years, in the event of a halt in imports from Niger.

Furthermore, the claim that the military government has indeed ceased exports remains unconfirmed. Since Niger relies significantly on uranium exports, a long-term suspension of this trade appears impractical.

Increasing domestic risks

Although apprehension over global uranium supplies has subsided, the prospects for existing uranium mining companies in the country remain dangerous. Apart from government in-fighting, the prevailing instability has emboldened jihadists in the area.

There have been reports of an increase in Boko Haram members crossing the border into Niger from Chad and Nigeria following the coup. Drawing from the experiences of Mali and Burkina Faso, where military coups correlated with heightened terrorist activity, a similar pattern may emerge in Niger.

A surge in terrorist incidents poses a direct risk to the local population, including employees of mining companies operating in the region, exposing them to risks such as kidnap and ransom.

A more pressing energy concern surrounds the domestic electricity supply situation within Niger, worsened by Nigeria's decision to halt power supplies to the country. Crucially, Nigeria's contribution accounted for a substantial seventy per cent of Niger's total power.

As a result of this decision, Niger is now grappling with widespread reports of rolling blackouts, which is an unusual occurrence for a nation that has typically enjoyed a dependable power supply.

To address its energy needs and strive for greater independence, prior to the coup, Niger had already begun the construction of the Kandadji Dam on the Niger River. However, the completion of this project, originally scheduled for 2025, may face additional delays due to instability brought on by the coup.

The domestic energy situation significantly impacts various stakeholders, including the general population and businesses alike. While both groups will be affected, businesses are more likely to have contingency plans, such as backup generators, to mitigate the disruptions to their operations.

Potential conflict

Looking to the future, there is a real possibility of military intervention by a Western-backed ECOWAS, given the high stakes involved.

Niger's crucial role as a Western asset in countering terrorism, along with the complexities of regional power dynamics, such as Nigeria's Bola Tinubu seeking regional leadership, adds to the potential for intervention.

However, such a military operation would encounter challenges and might not receive unanimous support from all ECOWAS members.

While previous military threats from ECOWAS have yielded results, Niger presents a unique and more challenging situation due to its vast geography and the size of its military.

Additionally, Nigeria, despite its desire to assert influence, faces limitations as its military is stretched in dealing with conflicts within its borders, which may hinder its ability to significantly impact its neighbour's affairs. Moreover, confronting Mali and Burkina Faso's militaries would also prove difficult for the bloc.

Finally, Western involvement, particularly from former colonial powers like France, could be viewed with scepticism and may necessitate cautious manoeuvring by Western allies in the region.

Given these challenges and the goal of avoiding war, the current preference is for mediated dialogue. However, if both parties are unable to reach a peaceful solution, we may begin to see steps taken that indicate military intervention.