Rafah offensive appears imminent as satellite imagery reveals tent sites

On 24 April, high-ranking Israeli intelligence and military officials convened in Cairo to meet with Egypt's intelligence chief and other key officials. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the possibility of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in Rafah, a city currently housing over 1.4 million displaced Palestinians.

Recent satellite imagery has revealed the presence of alleged Israeli-constructed tent encampments near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, suggesting that Israel may be preparing for a potential offensive on Rafah. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently argued that entering Rafah is necessary to defeat Hamas and search for hostages. It is estimated that if an invasion were to occur, the fighting would last approximately six weeks. The military has confirmed the mobilisation of two reservist brigades for a mission in Gaza, further suggesting that an invasion is imminent.

Despite Israel's intentions, international allies such as the United States (US) have voiced their opposition to a major military operation in Rafah. However, there appears to be an inconsistent stance from the US, as they have also expressed a shared objective with Israel to see Hamas defeated in Rafah. This inconsistency is evident in the continued supply of weapons to Israel, including the recent approval of USD 95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan by the US Senate on 23 April.

The potential Israeli operation in Rafah is a significant concern for Egypt, as it would result in thousands of displaced Palestinians attempting to enter Egyptian territory, potentially compromising Egypt's security. Furthermore, the invasion would likely provoke a response from Palestinian Resistance factions, who have asserted their readiness for any scenario, including a ground invasion of Rafah. These factions have called on the Palestinian population in the West Bank to strongly protest against Israeli threats of invading Rafah, thereby heightening the potential for violence in the area.

Notably, if a ground invasion of Rafah were to occur, it would also likely trigger a surge in incidents in other regional flashpoints. This could include increased activity from Hezbollah in Lebanon, specifically targeting northern Israel and potentially inspiring attacks from lone actors expressing their anger towards these developments globally.