The future of the UN's Mali mission

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was established by Security Council resolution 2100 of 25 April 2013 to support political processes in that country and carry out a number of security-related tasks.

The Mission was asked to support the transitional authorities of Mali in the stabilisation of the country and implementation of the transitional roadmap.

In the last month or so, there have been a number of incidents to suggest that MINUSMA may have no choice but to leave voluntarily, or be asked to leave by the Malian government.

The French withdrawal itself dealt a massive blow to MINUSMA, given that peacekeepers largely relied on French troops for their own protection. In addition, Egypt and Germany have similarly pulled back their key assets to MINUSMA including troops and reconnaissance.

To make matters worse, the Malian government’s attitude towards MINUSMA has also become increasingly hostile, culminating in temporary suspension of  MINUSMA rotations, and civil groups close to the government holding protests demanding the mission leave Mali by 22 September.

The country is becoming more and more difficult for MINUSMA to function in. Although there is no set deadline for when the mission would be asked to leave, it is feasible that it might do so within the next 12 months, due to Mali’s growing antagonism and the mission’s diminishing resources.

In the case that the mission fails, Mali will become more vulnerable to terrorists operating there as well as more exposed to Wagner, who continue to extend their influence throughout the country.