What the death of President Ebrahim Raisi means for Iran

On 19 May, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and seven others were killed in a helicopter crash. The incident took place in a remote mountainous area, approximately 58km south of the Qiz-Qalasi Dam and 2km southwest of the village of Uzi.

President Raisi was on his way to East Azerbaijan province to attend the inauguration of the Qiz Qalasi and Khoda Afarin dams, a joint hydroelectric power project with Azerbaijan. Also on board were Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the governor of East Azerbaijan province, Malek Rahmati, and Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-e Hashem, Tabriz’s Friday prayer leader and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official representative in East Azerbaijan.

The exact cause of the crash has not yet been confirmed by Iranian authorities. However, government ministers have stated that the helicopter encountered difficulties due to heavy fog and rain.

Some political figures, such as Iran’s former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, have used this event to discuss the impact of sanctions on Iran. They argue that the sanctions, which prohibit Iran from purchasing US-built planes, have complicated the process of updating and repairing US-manufactured planes acquired before the sanctions were imposed.

What happens next

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei has officially appointed Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president, in accordance with Article 131 of Iran’s constitution.

According to the constitution, the acting president, along with the heads of parliament and the judiciary, will oversee the election of a new president within a maximum of 50 days, currently due to take place on 28 June.

Raisi’s death has raised questions about his successor and the potential impact on Iran’s policies. Importantly, all candidates must undergo vetting by the Guardian Council, a strict oversight body that has frequently disqualified prominent conservative and moderate officials. Therefore, a significant departure from Iran’s current policy is highly unlikely.

Additionally, the presidency in Iran holds less power compared to other presidencies, as the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, holds the ultimate authority.

What is noteworthy is the presidency often serves as a stepping stone to the role of Supreme Leader, as seen with Ali Khamenei, who previously served as the President of Iran between 1981 and 1989. Raisi was considered the main contender to succeed Ali Khamenei, given his longstanding alignment with the Supreme Leader.

Another potential candidate for Iran’s Supreme Leader is Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Ali Khamenei may choose to run in the presidential election.

The Paydari Front

Another significant player in the forthcoming elections is the Paydari Front, also known as Jebhe Paydari in Iran. This hardline political faction regards the late Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah-Yazdi as their spiritual leader.

The party, which was established in 2011 during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, currently holds the majority in Parliament. It is believed that the party is well-positioned to navigate behind-the-scenes negotiations among political factions in the upcoming elections. If they achieve success, Iran is likely to witness the emergence of more hardline figures.

The upcoming election is likely to stir unrest in Iran, as underlying tensions already exist. This is particularly relevant as Raisi took a hard-line approach in responding to protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, who died while in custody after being arrested by the morality police.

However, law enforcement will be on high alert for any anti-government protest activity in the lead-up to the elections and will respond firmly to suppress such activities.