Energy in Crisis: Key threats facing the nuclear industry

In recent decades, the nuclear energy sector in Europe has witnessed a decline in its market share, due to the growth in renewables and natural gas.

Nevertheless, it has undergone a resurgence in support from both the public and industry in the past year, driven by a surge in power costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Furthermore, despite not being classified as a renewable energy source, nuclear energy production is noteworthy for its absence of greenhouse gas emissions, making it a low-carbon energy solution.

Nuclear reactors contribute significantly, generating nearly one-third of the world's carbon-free electricity, and as such play a vital role in achieving climate change objectives.

In September 2023, European lawmakers yielded to France's request, permitting nuclear power for ammonia and hydrogen production. This benefits all European nuclear power producers by exempting some non-emitting nuclear facilities from hydrogen production regulations. Eligible nuclear plants can now participate in scaling up clean hydrogen production, beyond France.

Key threats to the nuclear industry

The key threats to the nuclear industry can be split into safety and security concerns.

The safety of nuclear facilities is crucial due to the potential for significant fallout from a large-scale release of radioactive material.

Historically, there have been two major reactor accidents in civil nuclear power: Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011.

Chernobyl resulted from a flawed reactor design, leading to a fire, explosion, and radiation-related fatalities. However, it's important to note that the reactor designs used in nuclear power plants today differ from Chernobyl's and would not burn for as long.

Fukushima, in contrast, resulted from an earthquake and tsunami, causing structural damage, explosions, and radiation releases.

Physical security concerns

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has categorised four primary nuclear security risks: the theft of a nuclear weapon, the acquisition of nuclear materials for the construction of nuclear explosive devices, the malicious use of radioactive sources, and the radiological hazards by an attack or sabotage of a nuclear facility.

The theft of a nuclear weapon, although potentially catastrophic, remains highly unlikely due to the immense scale and weight of such devices.

Furthermore, deliberate weaknesses are built into the detonation systems to ensure failure if exposed to abnormal environments. Additionally, the weapons have stringent security measures, including Permissive Action Links (PALS), which are made to prevent unauthorised detonation.  

Acquiring nuclear materials for constructing explosive devices presents similar challenges, requiring substantial manpower, skills, and equipment.

While incidents of nuclear material theft have been reported, there are no instances of these materials being successfully transformed into functioning nuclear weapons.

The malicious use of radioactive sources carries a higher likelihood due to increased accessibility.

A "dirty bomb" refers to the mixing of radioactive substances with conventional explosives, with the intent of dispersing radioactive material upon detonation, causing fear and panic. Notably, there have been no reported successful dirty bomb attacks to date.

Recent events, such as the Ukraine invasion and attacks on nuclear facilities, highlight the potential threat posed by actors seeking strategic advantage or sabotage.

In March 2022, Russia seized control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia after shelling the facility. The shelling resulted in an auxiliary building catching fire, and indications of damage to the transformer of one of the reactors. Russian troops prevented access to firefighters and disregarded pleas from operators to leave, forcibly entering reactor buildings and taking control of staff.

Additionally, attacks on Ukraine's electricity power grid disrupted the supply of electricity required for cooling the reactors, prompting the use of backup generators.

This type of activity has not been limited to warfare. In July 2021, the IAEA successfully thwarted a planned attack on one of Iran's nuclear facilities. Additionally, in July 2020, a fire incident occurred at the Natanz advanced centrifuge plant, described by authorities as an act of sabotage.

Cyber security

As nuclear energy usage expands globally, so does the cyber threat landscape. Over time, nuclear power plant control systems have transitioned from analog to digital, increasing the potential number of vulnerabilities.

Malicious actors may target nuclear power plants through cyberattacks with various objectives, such as acquiring expertise, information, technology, or nuclear materials. These attacks can result in tangible disruptions, including power failures, radiological releases, and heightened proliferation risks.

The consequences vary in nature and severity, from political damage and loss of public confidence to environmental harm, and casualties.

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Each week, our Threat Intelligence team will be analysing a different energy industry as part of our Energy in Crisis series (including Oil, Gas, Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric and more). Follow us here or on LinkedIn to stay up-to-date with the latest analysis.