Netanyahu dissolves the Israeli war cabinet: Is he still in control?

On 17th June, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, dissolved his war cabinet.

First convened on 11th October, five days after Hamas’ initial attack, the cabinet has presided over all major decisions in the Palestine conflict so far. The six-man cabinet was closely aligned with Netanyahu, apart from centrist former Chiefs of General Staff, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who were appointed as part of a coalition agreement.

On 13th June, Gantz and Eizenkot resigned, citing a lack of direction and planning for a post-conflict solution in Palestine. As recently as 14th June, Gantz was polling at a higher approval rating than Netanyahu.

Seeing a power vacuum, right-wing ministers which Netanyahu has been increasingly forced to rely upon pushed to enter the War Cabinet.

One of these was the outspoken Ben-Gvir, who has previously called for the increase of already-extensive bombing operations and for the eventual expulsion of all Palestinians.

In response, Netanyahu dissolved the War Cabinet. While this prevented a right-wing shift, it also effectively centralises and further obfuscates military decision-making moving forwards.

The Significance

The dissolution of the cabinet is the latest blow to Netanyahu’s authority, demonstrating that the direction of the conflict is now being decided on a reactive, instead of a proactive, basis.

The rebuff of right-wing influences is likely positive for the short-term situation on the ground, with initial calls for increasing strikes having been averted.

However, as the war progresses, concentrating military decision making authority around the politically-unstable Netanyahu increases the risk of strategic volatility.

Netanyahu’s previous corruption indictments and recent ICC arrest warrants for war crimes incentivise him to stay in power for as long as possible.

Polling from May indicates that the Israeli voter base broadly supports Netanyahu’s continuation of the war, even if they don’t support him.

Collectively, these factors indicate that the lower Netanyahu’s popularity is, the more likely he is to increase operations in Palestine – with the dissolution of the war cabinet only increasing his power to do so.