Reformists win in Iran: A change in course?

Masoud Pezeshkian, the Reformist candidate, has been sworn in as the President-Elect of Iran.

It was initially speculated that he wouldn’t be allowed to run at all, with his proposed policies offering a change in course for Iran that included the re-opening of the Iranian nuclear deal and a reduction in religious controls on daily life.

However, it should also be noted that while influential, his role is directly subordinate to the decisions of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Even the decision to allow him to run was likely granted by Khamenei himself, with his will delivered through Iran’s Guardian Council.

The Significance

Pezeshkian is a popular politician, signalling a widespread desire for change. He is likely to push for domestic reforms and assist with the internal modernisation of Iran – no small task in an ultra-conservative theocracy.

However, he is unlikely to have any impact on Iranian foreign policy, the majority of which is decided by Khamenei and executed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), subordinate only to the Ayatollah himself.

In terms of Iran’s role globally, it likely mattered very little who won.

Instead, the introduction of a reformist character into Iranian politics is likely a planned allowance by the Iranian clergy to ‘demonstrate’ democratic progress.

This may help to improve their international credibility, particularly relevant at a time where so many are looking for stability in a region torn by the war between Israel and Hamas.

Additionally, ambitions for a return to the nuclear deal and removal of sanctions are likely optimistic. Khamenei has consistently voiced his distrust of the West and the US, instead favouring to ‘Look to the East’.

While President Biden has expressed support for the nuclear deal, former President Trump has proved to be surprisingly resilient to the US courts, and now stands a real chance of winning in the US election come November.

Trump, himself the author of the “Maximum Pressure” sanctions strategy against Iran and the order to assassinate IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, would highly likely reject any new deal.

Collectively, these factors indicate that any possibility of Pezeshkian delivering on his platform of sanctions reduction is, at best, on pause until the US election. In the meantime, his remit will likely be limited to internal politics, with Iran’s international outlook decided by factors beyond his control.