The Horn of Africa’s growing vulnerability to climate change

The famine in Somalia continues to escalate due to a combination of conflict, high food prices (36% increase) that have been heightened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and severe drought, which together have contributed to over 11 million people being unable to access food.

The drought has prompted a mass migration of people to make-shift camps, many of which are arriving when it is too late for medical intervention.

An estimated 7.8 million people, roughly half of the population, are now affected by the drought, of which 213,000 are at high risk of famine - according to the UN.

The last time a famine was declared in Somalia, in 2011, more than 250,000 people died from lack of nutrition, half of which were under the age of five. Alarmingly, it has been estimated that the affected population is twice the size of 2011.

The drought has contributed to over 755,000 people being internally displaced in Somalia.

Additionally, although neighbouring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia continue to keep their borders open, they have multiple challenges of their own to contend with. At the end of 2021, 250,719 Somalians were seeking refuge in Ethiopia.

In the camps within Somalia, localized outbreaks of measles and cholera, which began in January, prompted UNICEF to launch a new measles vaccination campaign. However, without access to clean water, both diseases could impact the already vulnerable populations in the camps.

Whilst the current drought is the worst in decades, the increasing impacts of climate change mean it will not be the last.

A 2020 survey ranked Somalia as the second most vulnerable nation to the impacts of climate change in the world, behind Niger.

Focusing on realistic preventive measures including drought-resistant crops, irrigation, rural infrastructure, and livestock programmes will help to mitigate the risks and reduce the fallout.

Investment must also be concentrated on projects that strengthen resilience, such as renovating water stations and developing miniature greenhouses.