US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit

Tensions between cross-Strait relations (China and Taiwan) alongside the US have been prevalent since the mid 1950’s. However, these tensions have been gradually escalating over the last few years.

This report will firstly outline the background behind the China-Taiwan relationship, before looking into the build up to, and aftermath, of Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Our report will then seek to provide commentary on the international reaction to the visit and the potential longterm consequences.

Historical background of Cross-Strait relations

After the communists won a civil war on the mainland, Taiwan (ROC) and China (PRC) broke apart in 1949. Both sides claim to be one nation, but they dispute as to which government should hold the position of national leadership. They maintain a strong economic relationship, engaging in commerce and investment worth billions of dollars.

China disputes any visits from the United States (US) to Taiwan as they view it as an attempt to aid Taiwan in independence from China. China continues to view Taiwan as being part of their territory, heralded under the ‘one China’ narrative and views a move to full independence as a threat to their national security.  

Last week, US President Joe Biden held a phone call with Xi Jinping, where he allegedly reiterated that the US’s position on Taiwan has not changed and it does not support independence for the island.

Previous crises in the Taiwan Strait

There have been three previous notable incidents involving the US, China and Taiwain since their split in 1940’s. Whilst these incidents vary, due to the involvement of the same actors, it is useful to understand the dynamics and consequences from prior events.

In the early 1950’s Chiang Kai-shek, the head of the Chinese Nationalist Party, had fled to Taiwan in 1949 after his country’s civil war was defeated by Mao Zedong’s communists. Beijing attempted to prevent the US Eisenhower administration from establishing a mutual defence contract with Kai-shek.

The defence pact was signed by the US and Taiwan in 1954. The US also attempted to keep communist forces from seizing Taiwanese-held islands of Kinmen and Matsu just off China’s southeast coast, which China was bombarding with artillery.

In 1958 the US military wanted to use nuclear weapons in order to stop the Chinese takeover of Kinmen and Matsu. However, Eisenhower rejected this idea and instead China and Taiwan came to an arrangement in which they shelled each other’s garrisons on alternate days.

This continued for twenty years until the PRC and the United States normalised relations.

In 1995 the White House approved a visa for Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui to visit the US for a reunion at Cornell University. China viewed this as a breach of US policy towards China and Taiwan, and an attempt to push for Taiwanese independance.

For the next ten months following this visit, China and the US reignited their negotiations over policy towards Taiwan. This came to a head in March 1996 when China conducted multiple military and missile tests near Taiwan. The US retaliated by the deployment of two carrier battle groups.

Build up to Nancy Pelosi’s visit

Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, begun her tour of Asia this week. She is scheduled to visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan to discuss trade, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, security and “democratic governance”.

Pelosi did not officially mention visiting Taiwan, however when it was raised as a potential China responded aggressively.

China issued various threats at the potential visit with the foreign ministry stating their military “will not sit idly by”, and ominously claimed “those who play with fire will perish by it”.

Pelosi’s visit is the highest-ranking American politician to visit Taiwan since former speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. Significantly, Pelosi has a history of opposing China on issues like human rights, and recently stated that the US needs to show support for Taiwan.

Prior to her arrival, the Taiwanese National Defence Ministry reportedly cancelled the leave of some officiers and soldiers, alongside mobilising the air defence force, representing a readiness for war.

Additionally at the time her plane was landing in Taiwan, the Taiwanese presidential office website and other ministerial websites began to experience cyberattacks. At a lower level, simultaneously, multiple protests took place in Taipei, some in favour, whilst others were against the visit.

Timeline of events

• Taiwan police confirm the flight carrying Pelosi is set to land at 22:00pm local time on the 2 August  (15:00 BST).
• Pelosi lands at around 22:44pm local time (15:44 BST) at Taipei Songshan Airport.
• Beijing issues a flyover to be conducted over the Taiwan strait.
• At around 23:20pm local time (16:20 BST) the Chinese military release a map of live-fire exercises in six areas surrounding Taiwan that will take place between the 4-7th August.
• At around 03:30am local time on the 3 August (19:33 BST) it is reported that Taiwan is reportedly preparing air-raid shelters and delivering manuals. In addition, it is reported that missiles may launch from naval vessels and may target “external forces that try to intervene in the unification process”.
• In the afternoon of the 3 August the Chinese Commerce Ministry stated they would be suspending the export of natural sand to Taiwan and the import of citrus fruits and fish from the 3 August.
• China also vowed to take “disciplinary actions” against two Taiwan foundations (Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and Taiwan Foreign Ministry’s International Cooperation and Development Fund) which it claimed had aggressively engaged in pro-independence separatist activities.
• Pelosi’s flight departs from Taipei Songshan Airport at around 18:00pm local time on the 3 August  (11:00 BST).

International Response

Following Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the international response has been diverse. However, an identifiable trend is that those in support of China have by far been the most vocal, whilst western nations and those allied with the West have been more reserved.

Unsurprisingly, Russia has been active in vocalising their condemnation of the visit from multiple embassies. Various statements cited that Pelosi’s visit is a clear provocation towards China, Taiwan is an internal, domestic affair and that they support the One China policy.

Against the backdrop of Russia’s own invasion of Ukraine, rooted in fears of losing a neighbour and historic territory to the West, Russia’s foreign policy towards Taiwan will undoubtedly align with China. It is also likely that Russia are using this as an opportunity to both shift international attention away from their war in Ukraine, and also as a way to hit back at the West with a sternly vocal response like they received in Ukraine.

Middle Eastern countries under the Chinese and Russian axis have adopted similar rhetoric. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani, criticised Pelosi’s visit and reiterated Iran’s support for a “One China” policy.

Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned the visit, calling it a “an act of hostility which doesn’t match with the international law, and doesn’t respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the People’s Republic of China”.

Pakistan reinforced the condemnation, stating “that inter-state relations should be based on mutual respect, non-interference in internal affairs, and peaceful resolution of issues by upholding of principles of UN charter, international law and bilateral agreements.”

Meanwhile, regional players who have closer ties to China have criticised the visit. North Korea said Pelosi’s action was an “imprudent interference” and that they fully support China. The stakes are different for North Korea than Russia, by the fact that China is truly a lifeline for North Korea and is highly economically dependent on the nation.

Whilst Russia indeed is economically connected to China, the precedent of internationally dissuading territorial breakaway is clearly the driver.

Another regional player which echoed North Korea’s statements was Myanmar who stated the visit caused an “escalation of tensions,” and they oppose “attempts that aim to interfere in internal affairs,” and “fully support One China Policy”.

Japan is one of China’s main historic regional adversaries. In spite of a colder relationship with China, they have refrained from fiery commentary on the visit. Instead, Japan called China’s military exercises in response to the visit ‘concerning’ but refrained from commenting on Pelosi’s visit to Asia, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno adding Japan hopes issues over the Taiwan Strait will be resolved through dialogue.

Taiwan has recently become known as the ‘Cuba of Asia’, with Cuba having been the archetype example of a proxy war between superpowers. Naturally, Cuba has aligned with China in this instance, outlining “its firm rejection of the actions aimed at damaging the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China, condemns the interference in its internal affairs and emphasizes its concern about the increase in tensions and the aggravation of the situation around Taiwan” resulting from the US military presence, something Cuba is all too familiar with.

As stated earlier in the report, supporters of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan have been quiet in the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, there are signs of increasing military preparedness amongst allies in the region, which could be perceived as a nod to protecting Taiwan.

On 3 August, the US, Indonesia, Australia, Japan and Singapore launched huge joint military drills with 5,000 soldiers on Sumatra amid rising maritime threat from China. The planned drills commenced following China's Defense Ministry stating on 2 August it would conduct a series of targeted military operations to ‘safeguard national sovereignty’ in response to Pelosi´s visit. It will be the largest drill since the annual joint-exercise began in 2009. Around 2,000 of the participating soldiers are from the US.

Whilst outright vocalising their support for Pelosi’s visit may be deemed too risky, it is clear that allied partners in the region are willing to work with the US to counter Chinese aggression.

Fallout from visit

Economically

China has already banned the imports and exports of some products between Taiwan and China, including sand and some food products. As China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner with a bilateral trade of USD328.3 billion last year, it is likely Beijing will use its upper hand to showcase their disapproval of Pelosi’s visit. In the short-term, China’s actions of conducting live-fire drills surrounding Taiwan may disrupt commercial shipping, as some of the chosen areas are close to major Taiwanese ports.

Whilst Taiwan is self sufficient in the majority of key areas, they rely heavily on energy imports, including from Qatar, Australia, the US and Russia. Taiwan only produces 12% of its energy domestically and therefore this weak position makes Taiwan vulnerable if China were to target the islands liquefied natural gas terminals or restrict fuel imports. This could have a signfiicant impact on Taiwanese manufacturing and therefore businesses in the region.

Additionally, the heightened tensions between the US-China from the visit serves to complicate business operations in both regions. China’s top electric-vehicle battery maker, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. was planning to announce a new plant in North America, but has now suspended the announcement due to concerns over criticisms. This shows the bilateral geopolitical implications of rising tensions surrounding Taiwan.

Politically

The visit from Pelosi has come at a crucial time politically for President Xi-Jinping, who is expected to break convention and seek a third term in office at the Communist Party’s 20th Congress in December this year. This upcoming congress, coupled with the strong statements made from China to attempt to dissuade Pelosi from visiting, mean that Xi-Jinping is in a position where he can not afford to be seen as weak.

It is likely that Xi-Jinping will take action towards those who he views to be putting his position at risk- even if it is largely just sabre-rattling. This has already been witnessed with two Taiwanese foundations - Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, and the Taiwan Foreign Ministry’s Interational Cooperatioon and Development Fund, who have been banned from cooperating with any companies or individuals in China. It was claimed both these foundations engaged in ‘pro-independance’ activities.

Additionally, we may see a shift in political relationships and alliances between countries in the region. In preparation for Pelosi’s flight Taiwan was negotiating with Japan and the Phillipines to find alternative aviation routes.