Escalating risk: Western responses in the Israel-Hamas conflict

Shia militia groups operating in support of Iran have quickly broadened the scale of the Israel-Hamas war. Over time, rocket and drone attacks have expanded from targeting Israeli cities to include civilian shipping and Western military assets across the region.

Multiple attacks have been conducted against US and UK ships in the Red Sea, however, have largely been ineffective or interdicted. Similarly, the volume of strikes has increased against US bases across the region, including a sophisticated one-way drone attack against Tower 22 in Jordan on 28 January, killing three US soldiers and wounded over 40 other soldiers.

The US responded with 125 precision strikes against 85 targets in Iraq and Syria on 2 February, with President Biden stating “Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing”.

This is the first effective attack against US personnel since ISIL’s bombing of Abbey Gate in 2021. Operationally, the US and UK highly likely intend to demonstrate strength against Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ in order to deter further attacks on Western personnel. This is supported by both the speed and scale of the airstrikes, reminding Iran of the US’ substantial intelligence and materiel advantage.

Notably, domestic politics have also highly likely influenced military strategy. Ahead of close election campaigns, British and American politicians likely intend to demonstrate confidence in foreign policy, encouraging a more aggressive posture.

Collectively, these factors indicate that Western militaries are likely to continue to operate at an elevated tempo, prioritising long-range strikes over further personnel deployments in order to maximise impact while minimising the risk of casualties.

This strategy carries its own risks, particularly inadvertently increasing the likelihood of US and UK assets being targeted, as they may be viewed as higher priority targets by their adversaries.