Haiti: Jailbreaks, resignations and gang warfare

What we know

Bouts of instability and uncertainty mark Haiti’s modern history, including coups, endemic corruption, and political assassinations. These factors, coupled with a volatile economy and natural disasters have resulted in over 29% of the population living below the poverty line of $2.15 per day – setting the conditions for organised crime groups to thrive.

Over time, local gangs have grown to dominate the capital, Port-au-Prince. The sudden jailbreak of over 3,700 inmates on 3rd March quickly escalated into the declaration of a co-ordinated attack by multiple gangs to topple the unelected Haitian Prime Minister, Ariel Henry.

Despite the subsequent declaration of martial law, substantial deliveries of US aid and plans to deploy Kenyan peacekeepers, the government’s response has so far proved ineffective, with Henry resigning on 12th March.

Why it matters

The US embassy in Port-au-Prince recently airlifted all non-essential staff and deployed a specialised Marine Corps security team for those remaining, indicating the severity of the situation. However, there is likely to be little appetite for any further deployments due to lingering hesitance as a result of the difficulties of the US evacuation of Kabul, as well as their extensive existing commitments.

Additionally, the reinforcement of Haitian police with Kenyan peacekeepers has stalled, limiting viable options for security forces to regain control - raising the risk of a complete breakdown of law and order. Such a scenario would almost certainly result in increasing numbers of displaced persons, of which there are already over 300,000. A portion of these could even be coerced into the gangs they have been forced to run from.

Despite these risks, the potential for an uncontested ‘mafia state’ on the US’ doorstep will be difficult to prioritise, with the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza dominating international attention.