Israel’s deadline: The advance into Rafah

What we know

Israel’s 10th March deadline for a ground assault into Rafah is rapidly approaching. Their demand for all hostages to be released before a ceasefire is signed have not been met, with Hamas sticking to their own proposed ceasefire terms despite pressure from regional powers and the US.

Successive Israeli military operations have pressed southwards through Gaza, progressing through to Hamas stronghold, Khan Yunis. This has also driven scores of war refugees southwards ahead of them in attempts to escape the Israeli advance. As of February, an estimated 1.5 million people are thought to have taken shelter in the city of Rafah - over half of Gaza’s 2.2 million population.

As a result, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has grown increasingly desperate. International aid including airdrops of food by the US, France, and others have done little to make an overall impact, with the Red Cross estimating that almost all of Gaza’s population are in “emergency levels” of food insecurity.

Why it matters

Rafah is the southernmost city in Palestine, and home to one of two currently viable border crossings with Egypt. This crossing is already severely bottlenecked due to restrictions put in place by Israel; once the offensive starts, there is nowhere left to go. An IDF assault into Rafah would bring high-risk urban warfare to one of the most population-dense areas on Earth, substantially increasing the risk of civilian casualties.

Even if Hamas are militarily defeated, a crisis of this scale is likely to endure long after the war’s end. The sheer volume of refugees coupled with the physical devastation of Gaza is highly likely to set the conditions for an extended famine, as well as the long-term radicalisation of vulnerable refugees by Hamas. Such a scenario could resemble a scaled-up version of ISIS’ eventual resurgence from Al-Hawl, Syria - risking long term repercussions for Israel and their allies.