Navigating the Red Sea: Houthi attacks and global trade

What we know

The Israel-Hamas war has developed to involve multiple regional actors. Iranian-supported Lebanese Hezbollah has been actively engaged in cross-border rocket attacks against Israeli targets since 8th October – a day after Hamas’ initial attack. The Houthis, another Iranian-funded Shia militia group based in Yemen, demanded a ceasefire and threatened missile attacks against Israeli and supporting targets shortly after.
‍
The first salvo of Houthi rockets targeting Israel were intercepted by the US Navy on 19th October. In November, they conducted a helicopter-enabled hijack of Galaxy Leader, a Turkish-flagged cargo ship operating in the Red Sea.

In the months since, multiple civilian vessels have been attacked and catastrophically damaged, with a US-led task force expanding maritime security operations and airstrikes in response. Lloyds shipping data indicates that despite these operations, shipping activity is down almost 40% YoY and continuing to fall.
‍

Why it matters

Although some carriers continue to operate at risk, Houthi drone and rocket attacks have resulted in a de-facto trade embargo in the Red Sea – with vessels being rerouted past the Cape of Good Hope. Their success has highly likely been enabled by recent advances in drone technology and a surplus of legacy munitions, allowing for consistent, accurate operations to be conducted cheaply.

This represents a strategic shift, as a naval blockade has traditionally required an established navy in order to be effective, something only available to nation-states. This disproportionate global effect from a relatively small group has almost certainly been noted by similar non-state actors, increasing the risk of similar operations (and disruptions) in the coming years.