Russia advances on Kharkiv: Ukraine forewarned but not forearmed

Since initial reports of the massing of up to 30,000 Russian troops on 8th May, Russian forces have begun their advance towards Kharkiv, Ukraine’s predominantly Russian-speaking second city.

In the days since, over 8,000 residents have been evacuated as Russia seized multiple towns nearby. As of 16th May, Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have surged into the area, considerably slowing the offensive. President Zelensky described the situation as “difficult”, but “under control”.

The advance is a reminder of Russia’s first offensive towards the city in 2022. The Battle of Kharkiv resulted in thousands of military casualties over almost three months, and forced the evacuation of over 600,000 people.

Multiple agencies including UK Defence Intelligence warned of a likely Russian move towards the city, however the UAF were caught unprepared. From the 9th to the 15th of May, Russian forces estimated to have gained over 107 square miles of territory.

Despite being forewarned, the UAF was likely unable to resource a complete defensive strategy due to delays in lethal aid packages from their allies.

Congress’ recent release of $61 billion in military aid is months late, resulting in a gradual degradation of the heavily-committed UAF’s capability.

The significance

Control of Kharkiv highly likely remains a key objective for Russia, as holding the city would support Putin’s initial promise to “defend the rights” of all Russians and Russian-speaking people.

Militarily, the city would also provide a defensible extension of Russian control 30km from their border, enabling for the further projection of battle-winning reconnaissance assets, artillery fires, and logistics.

However, the city has not yet been entered. If the Russians commit to an attack, their advance would likely be substantially slower and at a higher cost compared to 2022, due to increasing UAF resistance.

As the situation is still developing, there also remains a possibility that the advance is a feint. Kharkiv is likely to remain heavily defended as long as there is a threat of Russian capture, due to it’s criticality to Ukraine. The ~10,000 Russians already deployed towards the city may be able to consolidate their position, pinning a proportionally larger number of Ukrainian soldiers and assets to the defence of Kharkiv.

Separately, massed troops within the Russian border retain the capability to rapidly redeploy – providing an opportunity for reserved Russian forces to advance into lesser defended areas and quickly seize further territory.

We will continue to monitor the situation.