The impact of Milei’s victory on drug trade in South America

What we know

On 20th November, far right populist and self-described “Anarcho-Capitalist” Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidential election on a platform of deregulating the economy and downsizing the government.

Argentina’s economy is ‘in intensive care’ with inflation at 140%, generating substantial appetite for change. Yet despite his personal popularity, his Libertarian party controls only 14% of the Lower house and 11% of the senate, making future progress difficult.

If implemented, his proposed policies could prove disastrous for Argentinian security forces, destabilising established efforts to suppress international drug trafficking from South America.

Why it matters

Argentina was a key exporter of Cocaine until 2015, when a ‘Grand Strategy’ against narcotics was unveiled. This involved the strengthening of security institutions combined with investment into healthcare – the opposite of Milei’s proposed policies.

This strategy was hugely effective, with drug seizures and arrests more than doubling in four years. Nationwide homicides fell by 30%, with further reductions of up to 92% in the poorest areas – cementing the relationship between violent crime and drug trafficking.

As long as Miele’s power remains limited, he is unlikely able to substantially influence Argentine security policy. However, his hasty rise to Government coupled with the critical economic situation indicates that change may happen quickly, risking a rapid decline in regional security with very little warning.